Speaking to the net migration impact, it would be useful to know the absolute numbers over years since by definition the denominator effect dampens the % as the population increases over time.
I read somewhere that 2023 had the largest increase in population - almost 3.3 million. How do we connect that information to your theses?
Ben, I think your points make sense on a macro-level, particularly if the world tends to look a bit the same over the next 30 years as the last 30 years. But in real estate, everything is hyper-local and I don’t think that the U.S. and Maine in particular will follow these trends.
Climate change will have a profound impact on demographics and location. While Maine is the oldest state in the nation, it will be a magnet for climate refugees and in-migration (it already is as many new residents I’ve met have relocated from the south and west due to climate concerns - I’m in fact one of them). While Maine’s housing stock will soon turnover due to its elderly population, it will be quickly gobbled up by new entrants. Maine also has the oldest housing stock in the nation, much of which is falling apart and highly inefficient. Maine needs to build housing to replace its stock, but also increase housing development. Much of the State’s elderly population would love to downsize, but there is no product for them. As you mentioned, we also have a labor problem. There will be outsized demand to meet this labor problem if we can provide enough housing.
Looking at the U.S. as a whole, there are definitely some markets that are being overbuilt. These markets would generally benefit from more in-migration, however, the majority of the overbuilt markets are in the southern and southwestern states. Living in these areas may become unsustainable. The areas in the U.S. that will be most desirable in the future are the areas not building any housing. So we have an imbalance. Northern states will need to find ways to build more housing, while southern states may end with a glut of inventory. Furthermore, future development patterns will not be able to follow the consolidation model of the last several hundred years. Rather than concentrating in urban areas and building vertical, we will need to build smaller, decentralized communities. Much our future work will revolve around farming once again and providing for needs locally. Small, rural communities that have seen an outflow of residents over the past century will once again be revitalized. We also need to build new, smaller towns that are providing for their own needs locally.
While things in the U.S. will likely get much worse, it will be a whole lot worse in the global south and southern northern hemisphere. This will put extreme pressure on countries like ours as well as Canada, Russia and Scandinavia for in-migration. While our population may be aging, it will be back filled by an influx in migration. There will be a lot of pushback from within our country, but will not have a choice.
I would highly recommend the work of Parag Khana as it relates to demographics and Nate Hagens as it relates energy availability in the future. These are major trends that will have an outsized impact on future housing needs.
Speaking to the net migration impact, it would be useful to know the absolute numbers over years since by definition the denominator effect dampens the % as the population increases over time.
I read somewhere that 2023 had the largest increase in population - almost 3.3 million. How do we connect that information to your theses?
Great article. I appreciate the facts and the data, especially re rate of immigration...
Ben, I think your points make sense on a macro-level, particularly if the world tends to look a bit the same over the next 30 years as the last 30 years. But in real estate, everything is hyper-local and I don’t think that the U.S. and Maine in particular will follow these trends.
Climate change will have a profound impact on demographics and location. While Maine is the oldest state in the nation, it will be a magnet for climate refugees and in-migration (it already is as many new residents I’ve met have relocated from the south and west due to climate concerns - I’m in fact one of them). While Maine’s housing stock will soon turnover due to its elderly population, it will be quickly gobbled up by new entrants. Maine also has the oldest housing stock in the nation, much of which is falling apart and highly inefficient. Maine needs to build housing to replace its stock, but also increase housing development. Much of the State’s elderly population would love to downsize, but there is no product for them. As you mentioned, we also have a labor problem. There will be outsized demand to meet this labor problem if we can provide enough housing.
Looking at the U.S. as a whole, there are definitely some markets that are being overbuilt. These markets would generally benefit from more in-migration, however, the majority of the overbuilt markets are in the southern and southwestern states. Living in these areas may become unsustainable. The areas in the U.S. that will be most desirable in the future are the areas not building any housing. So we have an imbalance. Northern states will need to find ways to build more housing, while southern states may end with a glut of inventory. Furthermore, future development patterns will not be able to follow the consolidation model of the last several hundred years. Rather than concentrating in urban areas and building vertical, we will need to build smaller, decentralized communities. Much our future work will revolve around farming once again and providing for needs locally. Small, rural communities that have seen an outflow of residents over the past century will once again be revitalized. We also need to build new, smaller towns that are providing for their own needs locally.
While things in the U.S. will likely get much worse, it will be a whole lot worse in the global south and southern northern hemisphere. This will put extreme pressure on countries like ours as well as Canada, Russia and Scandinavia for in-migration. While our population may be aging, it will be back filled by an influx in migration. There will be a lot of pushback from within our country, but will not have a choice.
I would highly recommend the work of Parag Khana as it relates to demographics and Nate Hagens as it relates energy availability in the future. These are major trends that will have an outsized impact on future housing needs.