Great analysis. It will help borrowers to make up their mind. The fly in the ointment may be the need to attract buyers for US Govt debt that puts a floor under the market. Thats a dynamic that may not be catered for in the Fedwatch tools. Or is it? If private sector earnings decline and the savings pool is used up, and unemployment increases, Government receipts will decline. If, in an election year, the Democrats opt for more spending, with an increase in the deficit? What then?
Great analysis. It will help borrowers to make up their mind. The fly in the ointment may be the need to attract buyers for US Govt debt that puts a floor under the market. Thats a dynamic that may not be catered for in the Fedwatch tools. Or is it? If private sector earnings decline and the savings pool is used up, and unemployment increases, Government receipts will decline. If, in an election year, the Democrats opt for more spending, with an increase in the deficit? What then?