The Tired Thanksgiving
People are worn out.
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The Tired Thanksgiving
For much of the time I lived in Boston, I attended Old South Church, which today is located adjacent to the Boston Marathon finish line and is commonly seen in the background images of happy runners completing their 26.2 mile journeys from Hopkinton to Copley Square. Old South was also a place of refuge and sanctuary following the Marathon Bombings in 2013, which occurred just down the street from the church’s front door.
Before moving to the heart of Boston’s Back Bay in 1875, Old South Church was located on the corner of Washington & Milk Streets in Downtown Boston, where it played a key role in the very founding of this country, counting as members the likes of Benjamin Franklin, Sam Adams, Samuel Dawes, and Phyllis Wheatley. On one cold night in December 1773, the organizers of the Boston Tea Party gathered at Old South Church before deploying to the harbor. When the British were in control of Boston as the war unfolded, they used Old South as a stable for horses and gutted the interior to the point that it took church members eight years to salvage it after the war. Several decades later, Old South Church was used as a recruiting station for soldiers in the Union Army during the Civil War and its members helped advocate for the abolition of slavery and, for decades that followed, the promotion of civil rights. I, of course, loved all of this history and still do. These were among all the reasons I was drawn to Old South to worship in addition to the welcoming and compassionate spirit of its ministers and members.
One of my favorite traditions at Old South was on the Sunday before Thanksgiving each year the congregation would gather at the church’s “ancestral home,” as they called it, on Washington & Milk Streets for its Sunday service. A group of friends and I went together in 2008. The guest preacher that day was Reverend Peter Gomes, who was the minister at Harvard’s Memorial Church for several decades (and also a graduate of Bates College, Maine readers might be interested to know).
Reverend Gomes has been described as someone who spoke “as if his every word would be recorded for posterity.” He had a robust presence to him and a deep, reverential tenor that was could be both somber and lively all at once. I remember him pausing at one point during this particular pre-Thanksgiving sermon and clearing his throat. The words that followed have stuck with me ever since. He said, “It is a worrisome time.” His words hung over the sanctuary with a pregnant pause, lingering in the air as the congregants sat in rapt attention.
I honestly cannot remember how he expounded upon his thoughts from there. I just remember the moment. Barack Obama had recently been elected president and there was a moment of hope and optimism for many that came with that. But the economy was cratering. People were out of jobs and losing their homes. Life savings and retirement accounts were evaporating. The system was collapsing.
I am not sure that this moment in time, the fall and winter of 2008-2009, is appreciated enough in retrospect for what it was: a really hard and scary time filled with a lot of dark days for many people throughout this country. Time has a tendency to water down our memories of such periods and subsequent troubles have distracted us as we collectively moved on, but anxiety and fear were palpable during those long hard months. I remember it being a miserable time for many people.
So what does this have to do with today? Well, we are going through tough times again. People are restless after nearly two years of limitations, quarantines, and sickness. They don’t like that their kids’ schools keep getting disrupted and that many kids’ normal activities have been possible to the extent that they usually are. People are tired - tired of working, tired of each other, and tired of being tired. And people are mad. Social media is a toxic stew of anger and venom on a daily basis about whatever topic is hot that day let alone the ongoing and exhausting debates about masks and vaccines and it is getting people completely worked up.
I remember sitting on a bus in Boston during my regular commute around the same time as the Old South worship service. I have a distinct memory of looking around and thinking, “Everyone on this bus is miserable. Here we are in one of the most special cities in North American with technology that can connect us to anyone in the world and opportunities all around us, and everyone is unhappy including me.”
I look around today and the technology has only gotten faster and more ubiquitous. We are more connected than ever. Devices, apps, and other pieces of technology have ostensibly improved our lives in countless ways, and yet still so many people are unhappy.
So what is going on?
The ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is, without a doubt, the leading variable to explain so many of our collective frustrations right now. People want it to be over and they are frustrated that it is not. They feel lied to and manipulated by their leaders about how long this was going to last and what would be necessary of people to bring it to a close. People are frustrated with their fellow Americans and their perceived notions that the collective non-actions of some have prolonged this crisis for all. And people are tired of their behaviors, activities, and traditions being disrupted by ongoing concerns about the lingering spread of the virus.
The effect of social media has been like throwing gas on a fire over the past two years. We are all wound a bit tightly these days anyway, and the algorithmic delivery of news, photos, and status updates from friends, contacts, and the person you knew from high school but were never really friends with has our emotions on edge.
The purpose of social media really is not to connect people, it is to keep people engaged with the apps themselves. Connection is one form of engagement and without a doubt Facebook and the like have done incredible good in this world at connecting family members and friends, helping people to organize, and shining a light on worthy causes, tragedies, and atrocities here and abroad. But an even stronger catalyst for engagement than connection is emotion. And not all emotions are positive. In fact, the most gripping emotions that lead to the highest engagement are the negative ones: fear, anger, distrust, frustration, and hate. The big tech social media companies know it, as do the politicians and traditional media companies. Consumers, voters, and viewers are the most engaged when they are feeling something and the easiest way to make people feel something is to make them feel bad.
The puncturing of all aspects of our days by social media has unquestionably impacted our collective mental health. Study after study confirms it: the more time people spend on social media, the more likely they are to have symptoms of anxiety and depression. Per McLean Hospital in Belmont, Massachusetts:
Social media has a reinforcing nature. Using it activates the brain’s reward center by releasing dopamine, a “feel-good chemical” linked to pleasurable activities such as sex, food, and social interaction. The platforms are designed to be addictive and are associated with anxiety, depression, and even physical ailments...
A 2018 British study tied social media use to decreased, disrupted, and delayed sleep, which is associated with depression, memory loss, and poor academic performance. Social media use can affect users’ physical health even more directly. Researchers know the connection between the mind and the gut can turn anxiety and depression into nausea, headaches, muscle tension, and tremors.
I don’t know about you, but after scrolling through Facebook for ten minutes I often notice my mood has changed. I honestly cannot believe the things some people people or say in the comments on various Facebook threads. In times past people would hide behind the anonymity of a message board, but now they make their nasty comments right out in the open with their name and profile picture attached to it. It’s frustrating, disheartening, and often anger-inducing just to scroll through.
But it is not just the vitriol of Facebook and the spread of misinformation that are the problems, however; it’s also the emptiness of it all. Charlie Warzel, who writes a newsletter I follow called Galaxy Brain, wrote about this last week in a post entitled, “Facebook’s Vast Wasteland,” saying:
Clicking through these [Facebook] pages can feel like flipping through the channels during a programming dead zone. Some posts are truly vapid, recycled, or low budget, like the 2 a.m. channel scroll. Other posts approximate the feel of listless daytime channel surfing: lots of time killers and “on in the background” content sandwiched between melodrama.
Importantly, lots of this content is not offensive in any way. There’s some worrying misinformation and propaganda; there are also some legitimately helpful resource pages, too. But the bulk seems to be this quickly published, clickbait-y grist for the viral Facebook mills. It’s not quite spam, because people engage with it, but it is created and published much like spam by content merchants who throw as much shit at the wall as possible to see what sticks.
We’ve all seen the content out there that is just so tempting to respond to, but after awhile just feels exhausting. “Name a movie with one word that doesn’t contain the letter A.” “Your birth month and street name combine to make your ninja name.” “What do you think of Company X’s decision to require masks in their stores.” “Should Kyle Rittenhouse have been found guilty.” It is so hard for some people to resist commenting on these threads, which is of course the whole point because once you engage with a post you are likely to see more posts by that page. News stations, radio stations, politicians, brand pages: they all want engagement and to grow their audiences, so they are constantly throwing up these vapid posts to get people to comment.
In that Charlie Warzel article he references one of the most commented-upon posts in recent memories was from a radio station that posed the question, “Let’s be honest, who hasn’t had a DUI.” The post got millions upon millions of views, comments, likes, and shares because people just felt so compelled to respond. Once you comment, the social media algorithm thinks you want to see more from that page in the future, so it becomes a game for the page administrators to get people to like, comment, and share in the hopes that these users will stick around.
Warzel describes the way he feels after a dully scrolling through Facebook in a way that feels very relatable:
Banal viral grist is likely fine in small doses, but the cumulative effect generally feels pretty crummy. I’ve experienced this on numerous platforms (recently, it happens to me on TikTok), where some mindless scrolling morphs into an hour-long binge and I put down the phone feeling almost hungover. I feel overstimulated and a bit bummed out about how I spent my time. You can see how this gets bleak when it becomes habitual. It could be, as Facebook’s own research teams suggest, bad for you after a while.
Like Warzel, after a few minutes of Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram scrolling (I am too old for TikTok), more often than not I am grumpier than I was before. Plus I just feel empty and a bit regretful, like I wasted my time. It’s like seeing a McDonald’s on a road trip: it seems like it’s going to be fun and fulfilling, but an hour later you become aware that all you did was gorge on empty calories and an hour or two after that you’re hungry again.
What the Data Says
There is plenty of interesting data out there that provides a lens into our collective well-being. I don’t want to be trite or materialistic by making it all about consumer behavior, but it is notable that consumer confidence plummeted this month to the lowest level in ten years. Consumers are feeling worse about the future today than they did at any point over the last decade including the outset and early days of the pandemic. When I heard this fact earlier in the week it was surprising to me as I remember in March of 2020, for example, people were feeling pretty miserable. That people would actually be feeling worse today was not what I expected.
I think that this is at least partially attributable to the ills of social media as described above: we are all spending too much time online and we are becoming grumpier because of it. But there are some pretty big levers moving in the economy right now, too, that have people concerned and anxious. Tops on the list is inflation. Now, to be sure, there are certain aspects of inflation that are good. Wages for lower income workers are starting to climb at their fastest rates in years. As I’ve written about previously, Social Security recipients will be receiving their biggest bump in 40 years next year, which will certainly help ease the pressure on a lot of older American’s monthly budgets. There is a strong case to be made that inflation if it is tied to nominal wage growth is particularly good for long-term borrowers with fixed-rate mortgages; I am sure 3.00% on a 30-year fixed rate is going to be especially attractive 7-10 years from now and beyond. The current rate of inflation is also being driven significantly by the fact that there is just such robust demand right now, which is not necessarily a bad thing. This is not stagflation (i.e. inflation without growth). This is roaring, supply-and-demand-based inflation.
But there are significant economic and political downsides to inflation and with good reason. And the problem today is that the specific goods and services that are inflating the most are the items that most impact regular Americans. Consider this:
Food Prices: up globally 30% in the last year. Thanksgiving Dinner here in the United States is projected to cost 14% more than last year according to the American Farm Bureau Federation via USA Today.
Gas Prices: up $1.28/gallon in the last year (although notably this past week for the first time in several weeks gas prices actually eased downward very modestly).
Utility/Energy Costs: natural gas, crude oil, and heating oil have all doubled in price over the last year. My local paper, The Bangor Daily News, reported this past week that local power supply costs are projected to increase by 89%, which is $30/month or $360/year. This is quite a lot for many people.
Rents: rents are rising nationwide at the fastest rate in 20 years.
It is not surprising that when food, gas, energy costs, and rents are all increasing at the rates they are, that people are going to feel pessimistic about their current financial states and especially pessimistic about the future.
I must say I’ve been frustrated by the tone from some of our elected officials and policymakers on the topic of inflation over the last 8-10 months. There has almost been a condescending attitude of “pay no mind, it will work itself out,” without an acknowledgment that these rapidly appreciation goods and services are hitting people pretty directly in their wallets. I understand that inflation is a politicalized thing and you can find any two economists to tell you different things about it, but as I’ve watched prices continue to rise the messaging from Washington D.C. has felt increasingly out of step with what people are feeling on the ground.
The plunge in how Americans are feeling is all the more profound when you consider that many different asset classes including real estate, stocks, and now cryptocurrencies have swelled in value beyond all expectations in the last two years. In many ways, it has never been better to be a stock market investor or a real estate owner and I’m not even going to get into cryptocurrencies (a topic of its own for the future). So it is strange in some ways that people are feeling so bad when the investment world is doing so well.
This divergence of rapidly appreciation values and steadily deteriorating consumer sentiment speaks to a couple of different points. First, many Americans simply do not have access to participate in the stock market the same way others do. Lower income Americans either do not have the funds to invest or it is too complicated, too risky, or the barriers to entry are too signifiant. So when the stock market increases in value, it is irrelevant to many Americans (even though many may be invested through their 401K’s without necessarily realizing it).
But more than this, the weight of the world being so heavy right now has people feeling so dour, frustrated, and restless that it does not even matter to many people if their assets have grown in value over the past year or two. Who cares? There are so many negative things happening in the news and online that the bad things outweigh the good, at least to many people.
What Comes Next
I’ll wrap up by concluding with the words of Reverend Peter Gomes from the Sunday before Thanksgiving thirteen years ago: this is a worrisome time. It is hard not to feel that the bottom is due to drop out of the stock market at some point and that interest rates will have to rise at some point, which will have far reaching impacts on the real estate market and the economy as a whole. And until food prices, gas prices, utility costs, and rents come down many Americans are going to be feeling increasingly pessimistic about the state of the economy.
I did not feel scared as I left that church service in 2008, however. Even though the tone and message was decidedly cautious and even foreboding, there was also hope in the togetherness of everyone. Unfortunately today we seem quite far from that. My advice is to spend Thanksgiving and maybe the days that follow completely logged off. Focus on family if you are fortunate to get along with your family members, otherwise focus on yourself and maybe quiet time in nature or just curled up on the couch with a good book. For all the ills of the world, much can be gained from simply taking a day or several days or a week to reset and rest and that is what a lot of people seem to need right now.
Ben Sprague lives and works in Bangor, Maine as a V.P./Commercial Lending Officer for Damariscotta-based First National Bank. He previously worked as an investment advisor and graduated from Harvard University in 2006. Ben can be reached at ben.sprague@thefirst.com or bsprague1@gmail.com. Follow Ben on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram and subscribe to this weekly newsletter by clicking below.
Weekly Round-Up
Just one message for the week ahead: keep those less fortunate especially the hungry in mind this Thanksgiving. The rising cost of food and supply chain issues are stretching our hunger-relief networks including right here in Maine. I am proud to serve on the Board of Directors for Good Shepherd Food Bank, and our CEO/President, Kristen Miale, has been speaking out on these issues of late: https://bangordailynews.com/2021/11/19/homestead/canned-good-donations-dwindle-at-food-pantries-amid-ongoing-supply-chain-shortages/
The conversation is six years old at this point, but I interviewed Kristen on my semi-dormant podcast, The Maine Show Podcast, back in 2015 about hunger relief efforts in Maine: https://maineshowpodcast.com/episode-010-kristen-miale-0
If you are able to donate this holiday season, please keep in mind that food banks including Good Shepherd are able to leverage dollars into many more meals through relationships with food-service providers like Hannaford and others. Donating actual food products is always nice, but donating dollars goes a particularly long way.
One Good Read
If you have time to read one more article this week, I recommend reading the Charlie Warzel article referenced above in full. Not that Warzel is likely to see this post of mine, but I appreciate the ability to quote him so ubiquitously as I did in my own newsletter this week and I hope that he would not mind: https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/galaxy-brain/618ad9942e822d00205a26b3/facebooks-vast-wasteland/
Have a great week, everybody. And Happy Thanksgiving.